Results of the Eastern Bering Sea summer survey for commercial crab species indicate that in general Bristol Bay red king crab stocks are status quo compared to a year ago, but that the outlook for snow and tanner crab may be a little less rosy.
If the fishery opens for opilio (snow) and bairdi (tanner) crab, the total allowable catch would likely be less than last year, based on thresholds in state regulations, says Ruth Christianson, science and policy analyst for Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers.
There is some concern that the state thresholds won’t be met, she said.
The industry is concerned that the Alaska Department of Fish and Game might not open a fishery, but we are exploring every potential to assure that that doesn’t happen, she said.
The industry’s primary concern right now is the tanner crab fishery, which has a rigid threshold, based on female biomass only. By comparison, there are three data sets for crab managers to work with on snow crab stocks, and they can choose one or use a combination of the three to determine their estimates of spawning biomass.
Each data set varies slightly in how raw survey data is interpreted and modeled to produce the biomass numbers, Christianson said.
The Alaska Fisheries Science Center report itself simply documents findings of the sampling of crab included in the federal Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands king and tanner crab fisheries management plan managed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game with federal oversight by the National Marine Fisheries Service.
NMFS determines the procedure for setting overfishing levels and allowable biological catch. ADF&G sets the annual total allowable catch for each crab stock.
Information included in the AFSC report will go to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council’s Crab Plan Team, which meets in Seattle Sept. 20-23 and will make model recommendations for each crab stock, Christianson said.
The council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee will also review the model recommendations, during the council’s October meeting in Anchorage.
If the fisheries open for snow and bairdi, the total allowable catch would likely be less than last year, based on thresholds in state regulations, Christianson said.
Water temperatures definitely have a dramatic effect on crab behavior and because of that it has a dramatic effect on catchability rates for the survey, Christianson said.
A dramatic swing increase or decrease in water temperature will affect where crab are found, and this is one of the warmest years on record for sea surface and bottom temperatures, she said.
There is a possibility that the crab are simply in a different place, where the survey does not go, but starting next year and every other year thereafter, researchers from AFSC in Kodiak will be doing a northern Bering Sea arctic survey, she said.
