State fisheries biologists are forecasting a run of 41.47 million sockeye salmon to Bristol Bay in 2017, with a potential harvest of 27.47 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.53 million fish in the South Peninsula fisheries.
While such a run would be virtually identical to the most recent 10-year average of Bristol Bay total runs, the Bristol Bay harvest itself would be 2 percent lower than the most recent 10-year harvest, said the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
For 2016, the forecast was for a run of 46.55 million sockeyes, and a harvest of 29.52 million reds for Bristol Bay. While the run itself was late, the sockeye harvest alone came in at 37,330,000 fish, worth an estimated $153,204,000.
The average price per pound for sockeyes this year was $.076. The highest price paid for sockeyes per pound over the last 32 years was $2.37 a pound in 1988.
The addition of 1,042 chum, 752 humpies, 91 cohos and 30 Chinooks brought the overall estimated value of the Bristol Bay catch this year to $156,166,000.
The 2017 run forecast to each district and river system includes16.07 million reds to the Naknek-Kvichak District (7.76 million to the Kvichak River, 4.04 million to the Alagnak River and 4.27 million to the Naknek River); 10.65 million to the Egegik District; 5.46 million to the Ugashik District; 8.62 million to the Nushagak District (5.50 million to the Wood River, 1.87 million to the Nushagak Rier and 1.25 million to the Igushik River); and 0.66 million to the Togiak District.
The forecast said the run would consist of 12.05 million age 1.2 fish, 9.35 million age 2.2 fish, 16.50 million age 1.3 fish and 3.50 million 2.3 fish.
Biologists noted that sockeye salmon runs to Bristol Bay have historically been highly variable.
The Bristol Bay total run has averaged 32.76 million fish from 1963 through 2016, and averaged 41.39 million fish during the most recent 10-year period.
Forecasting future salmon returns is inherently difficult and uncertain, with individual river forecasts having greater uncertainty compared to Bay-wide forecasts, they noted. Since 2001, on average, they said, they have under-forecasted returns to the Alagnak by 48 percent, Togiak by 20 percent, Kvichak by 22 percent, Wood by 9 percent, Nushagak by 10 percent and Naknek by 5 percent, and over-forecasted returns to Igushik by 15 percent, Egegik by 18 percent and Ugashik by 2 percent.
ADF&G extended its thanks for funding assistance and operating fishery monitoring programs for the 2016 season to Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association, Bristol Bay Economic Development Corp., Bristol Bay Regional Science and Research Institute, Trident Seafoods, Choggiung Limited, Peter Pan Seafoods, Manokotak Village Council, Bristol Bay Natie Association, Dylan Braund, Togiak Traditional Council, Twin Hills Village Council, North Pacific Seafoods, American President Line, and Copper River Seafoods.
The BBRSDA contributed $225,000 toward management of the 2016 Bristol Bay commercial fisheries. Without this contribution operational funds to manage the fishery would have been obtained through cost recovery test fishing, said ADF&G.
The Bristol Bay management program budget has been reduced by 17 percent over the last two years and the department anticipates additional cuts in 2017.
A memorandum of agreement has been signed by ADF&G and the Bristol Bay Regional Science and Research Institute, a non-profit subsidiary of BBEDC, to explore alternative future funding strategies, said Greg Buck, the state’s Bristol Bay area research biologist.
